October CPI Report: What the Inflation Data Is Expected to Show
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years in mid-September. But the Fed paused in late October. In its policy statement, the central bank acknowledged that “inflation remains elevated,” but said “more information” will help it determine the right policy to get inflation back to its 2% goal and “deliver price stability.”
The decision followed the release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, with higher gas and fuel prices the main catalyst behind CPI’s 3.7% year-over-year rise.
And with energy costs likely to stay elevated as the situation in the Middle East remains unresolved, David Payne, staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, believes the annual CPI rate will end the year at 4%, while core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, will be at 2.7%.
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With another Fed meeting on the near-term horizon — the central bank will issue its next policy decision on Wednesday, December 9 — the release of the September CPI report is a key economic event we’re tracking.
What is the CPI?
“CPI is a measure of the average price of that basket of goods and services over time,” writes Kiplinger contributor Coryanne Hicks. “The specific goods and services within the CPI basket are based on information that around 24,000 families and individuals give the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on what they buy.”
The two primary measures of CPI are headline, which is the total inflation rate experienced by households, and core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices.
Core CPI defied expectations for a slowdown in September, but was flat on a monthly basis — up 0.3% vs 0.3% in August.
When does the October CPI report come out?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the October CPI report at 8:30 am Eastern Standard Time on Tuesday, November 10.
Headline CPI is expected to be up 0.3% from August to September. Core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% month over month.
October 2025 data is missing because of the government shutdown, so the BLS can’t calculate and will not release year-over-year CPI this month.
Ahead of the October CPI report, we looked at what economists, strategists and other experts on Wall Street expect the data to show. You’ll find these outlooks, edited at times for brevity, below.
What Wall Street expects from the October CPI report
(Image credit: Getty Images)
“This month’s CPI report will be unique. Since the BLS did not collect price data in October 2025 amid the government shutdown, it will not publish year-over-year inflation rates this month, which will put an even bigger spotlight on the month-over-month changes. We estimate the headline CPI rose 0.28% in October. Gasoline inflation slowed following September’s sharp increase, while food inflation likely picked up as higher commodity and transportation costs gradually make their way into the grocery store. We expect the core CPI to have risen 0.21%. Some of September’s more pronounced goods price increases, including in apparel and toys, are unlikely to have been repeated in October. This should drive a cooling in core goods inflation from 0.25% in September to 0.11% in October, the latter being roughly in line with its average monthly pace this year. A softer core reading would be welcome after September’s upside surprise, but it would do little to alter the broader picture of 2026 being a lost year for bringing core inflation back to 2%. We expect the report to reinforce the slow and uneven nature of the disinflationary process, underpinning our expectation for the FOMC to hike once more in December.” – Wells Fargo economists
“The October CPI report is projected to show a notably smaller price increase than has occurred in the past two CPI reports. The slowing is mostly from a smaller increase in prices for gasoline and other energy goods, which contributed 0.17 percentage points to the August CPI increase and 0.39 pp to September, but are projected to contribute only 0.04 pp to the October CPI increase. Our headline CPI projection for October is 0.26% currently. The Bloomberg consensus average remains at 0.29%. Our core CPI projection for next week remains 0.23%. We expect to see only a little decline in headline CPI inflation until the spring of next year, at which point headline inflation should slow sharply (unless oil prices surge well above the $115 to $120 per barrel level from the spring this year). The core CPI change is projected to peak early next year. Along with the lapping of the oil price surge, the likely spring timing of the inflation slowdown is due to the ending of an upward bias that will be present between October and March in the 12-month changes for housing rents as a result of BLS procedures related to last year’s government shutdown.” – Alan Detmeister, Economist, UBS
“We expect the October CPI report to show a deceleration in inflation. We forecast headline CPI to have risen 0.2% month over month. We expect part of this reprieve to come from energy, led by gasoline prices, which fell about 1% m/m. We also expect a moderation in core CPI inflation after two consecutive months of upside surprises. We forecast core CPI rose 0.2% m/m in October. We expect the step-down to materialize primarily from core goods categories such as household furnishings, apparel and used cars. On the services side, we expect a modest slowing in core services inflation. Our baseline call remains a 25-basis-point hike in December. While the FOMC held policy rates unchanged in October, it added language that, in our view, tees up a December hike, with two hawkish dissents underscoring this bias.” – Pooja Sriram, Senior U.S. Economist, Barclays
“We expect to see both headline and core inflation rose 0.3% m/m in October. We will not get year-over-year CPI data because we are missing data from October 2025 due to the government shutdown. The September CPI report flagged early signs of an energy price spillover, but this was likely just the tip of the inflation iceberg. And we expect that this will continue to be the case in October. Core goods prices have been accelerating over the past three months with pressures building in imported goods categories including apparel and footwear, toys and recreational goods, and IT equipment. Motor vehicle parts and equipment prices (driven by tariff pressures) are beginning to add to used car prices. On the services side, we have consistently emphasized that services inflation is not slated to bring any meaningful relief for the remainder of the year. Taken together, view inflation risks skewed heavily to the upside.” – Michael Reid, Head of U.S. Economics, RBC Economics
“With fuel costs nudging higher in October (after seasonal adjustment), consumer prices likely rose 0.3% after spiking twice as fast in September. This should lift the yearly rate from 3.7% in September to who-knows-what, given that survey prices were uncollected during the Labor Department’s shutdown in October 2025. (Based on the average index for September/November 2025, the yearly increase would rise to 3.9%.) After consecutive monthly increases of 0.3%, core consumer prices could simmer down to a 0.2% advance. They are up a moderate 2.6% y/y in September but running hotter on a shorter-term basis (3.4% annualized for three months and 2.9% for six). This is due to energy-cost pass-through (e.g., airfares +22% y/y) and stubborn rental inflation (+3.2%), as higher mortgage rates have shut many families out of ownership. (Based on the average index for September/November 2025, the yearly core increase would rise to 2.7%.) Given the iffy outlook for oil prices, the FOMC won’t take much comfort from just one calm CPI report and will likely lift rates again in December.” – Sal Gautieri, Senior Economist, BMO Financial Group
