Will Guinea-Bissau stay trapped in political chaos?

The parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for December 6, 2026, in Guinea-Bissau won’t happen as deliberate. Aly Silva, spokesperson for transitional Prime Minister Ilidio Vieira Te, confirmed to DW that the vote had been postponed till additional discover. No new date has been set. The authorities first intends to debate the matter in cupboard earlier than publicly asserting when the elections might be held. It stays unclear whether or not they may happen in 2027 or not till 2028.

The nation’s political disaster dates again to November 26, 2025. Three days earlier, voters in Guinea-Bissau had elected a brand new parliament and president. Before the official outcomes may very well be introduced, the military seized power and halted the electoral process. Both then-President Umaro Sissoco Embalo and his challenger, Fernando Dias da Costa, had claimed victory. The navy management promised a return to constitutional order.

For lawyer and political analyst Cabi Sanha, the postponement comes as no shock. Since the coup, little has been performed to create the situations for credible elections, he says.

“The postponement was foreseeable,” Sanha advised DW. December 6 had certainly been set as the brand new election date. “But nothing was performed to make sure that these elections might really happen.”

Political freedoms beneath strain

The transitional authorities has justified the postponement by citing the shortage of organizational and political situations vital for elections. The deadline for submitting candidacies had already handed on October 6. Political events and potential candidates had not submitted their purposes. According to the prime minister, the events had additionally failed to carry congresses to pick out their candidates.

Sanha sees this as greater than an organizational drawback. He factors to restrictions on political actions and the shortage of dialogue with key actors within the electoral course of. Political events and civil society haven’t been sufficiently concerned, he says. Mediation efforts by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and Senegal have to this point failed to provide an answer.

“Free, clear and inclusive elections are solely potential if the required situations are established beforehand,” the lawyer says.

He subsequently additionally views the events’ failure to appoint candidates as a consequence of the political atmosphere. “How are events purported to nominate candidates when political actions are restricted within the nation? They can not maintain occasion congresses or set up rallies.”

Leading opposition figures are additionally staying overseas. Domingos Simoes Pereira, head of the main opposition party, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), was allowed to travel to Portugal in July 2026 for medical treatment after being released from detention. He had beforehand been held in pretrial detention in reference to an investigation into an alleged coup try. His protection group denies the allegations and has criticized the proceedings as politically motivated.

The absence of key opposition figures and restrictions on political organizing are making it tougher to conduct an electoral course of supposed to pave the best way for a return to civilian authorities.

An election date with out a timetable

What occurs subsequent stays unclear. Government spokesperson Aly Silva says the transitional authorities will first focus on the matter in cupboard. Only afterward will a brand new election date be introduced publicly. So far, there is no such thing as a concrete timetable.

It is subsequently additionally unclear when political events will have the ability to full their inside choice procedures, nominate candidates and start campaigning. For Sanha, that is one other indication that there’s nonetheless inadequate proof of the political will wanted to revive constitutional order.

“I don’t imagine that logistical issues are the principle subject. Rather, there seems to be an absence of political will to maneuver the electoral course of ahead,” he says.

Dispute over the structure

The political disaster has been compounded by a controversial constitutional reform. In a referendum on August 30, 2026, voters approved constitutional amendments that increase the president’s powers and scale back the dimensions of parliament from 102 to 65 seats. Critics query the legitimacy of the method as a result of the reform was ready beneath navy rule and with out a commonly elected parliament. The opposition had known as for a boycott of the vote.

Fernando Vaz, spokesperson for the National Transitional Council, defends the modifications. He says the method was not a complete rewriting of the structure however a focused revision. The reform is meant to assist overcome the nation’s political instability, he argues.

“The structure should be one of many devices that lead our nation towards larger stability,” Vaz advised DW. The transitional interval had supplied a chance to amend provisions that, within the navy management’s view, had been obstructing the nation’s political improvement.

Vaz additionally rejects criticism that the reform provides the president extra powers on the expense of the prime minister. “The president of the republic is the pinnacle of state, whereas the prime minister is the pinnacle of presidency,” he emphasizes.

Critics see it otherwise. The new constitutional framework strengthens the presidency: the president is to nominate and dismiss the prime minister and the federal government and, beneath sure situations, dissolve parliament. At the identical time, the variety of parliamentary seats is being decreased. It stays disputed whether or not the reform will genuinely contribute to stability or as a substitute focus extra energy within the presidency.

Local elections are usually not sufficient

The transitional authorities has introduced plans to carry native elections in 2027. Sanha broadly welcomes the proposal: Guinea-Bissau has by no means held such elections since independence. Nevertheless, he stresses that they have to not substitute the excellent nationwide elections.

“First, parliamentary and presidential elections should happen in order that the nation can return to constitutional order. Local elections can comply with afterward,” he says.

Local elections can not compensate for the shortage of democratic legitimacy on the nationwide stage. Political freedoms should even be restored in order that events can choose their candidates and voters can genuinely select between political alternate options.

A Transition With No Clear End

Guinea-Bissau has endured a long time of political instability, marked by navy coups, institutional crises and repeated interruptions of democratic processes. The newest coup continues this sample.

The renewed postponement of the elections reveals how far the nation stays from a return to constitutional order. Setting a brand new election date alone won’t be sufficient. Political actions should be permitted once more, events should be included within the course of, and dependable situations for elections should be established, lawyer Cabi Sanha advised DW.

This article was initially revealed in German.