What’s Iran’s nuclear endgame?
Iran‘s nuclear program has entered some of the vital durations in its historical past.
Questions over Tehran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% and the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) declining oversight of Iranian nuclear amenities have solely deepened the uncertainty. Yet indicators of international affairs stay.
In an interview final week, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian instructed US broadcaster Fox News that Tehran is ready to dilute its enriched uranium stockpile and submit its nuclear program for global inspection, offered a complete settlement is reached inside the framework of global legislation and the landmark Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
Conflicting statements from Iran
However, in distinction to Pezeshkian’s diplomatic rhetoric, statements from army and political figures in Tehran level in a distinct course.
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, mentioned that US and Israeli actions had created grounds for Iran to withdraw from the NPT, whereas stressing that no resolution had but been made, based on Press TV, the Iranian authorities’s principal English-language satellite tv for pc TV channel.
On September 19, British newspaper The Daily Telegraph, citing satellite tv for pc imagery, reported that Iran was actively establishing new amenities and rebuilding broken ones.
These websites embody “Taleghan 2” on the Parchin advanced southeast of Tehran and a posh burrowed beneath what is named Pickaxe Mountain close to Iran’s nuclear facility in Natanz.
Both websites have been beforehand focused in airstrikes throughout the US-Israel war with Iran, which the Pentagon dubbed Operation Epic Fury and Israel known as Operation Roaring Lion.
Their reported reconstruction has fueled hypothesis that tools and enriched uranium might have been moved deeper underground.
Washington has maintained a agency stance. Speaking on the UN General Assembly on September 22, US President Donald Trump mentioned: “I’ll by no means enable Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”
Can international affairs nonetheless work?
Access to army websites and the scope of IAEA inspections have lengthy been among the many most contentious points associated to Iran’s nuclear program.
The 2015 nuclear settlement generally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) imposed important restrictions on Iran, in change for sanctions aid, to stop it from creating nuclear weapons.
However, provisions for the inspection of army websites drew persistent criticism from opponents in Washington, criticism that contributed to the US withdrawal from the JCPOA beneath Donald Trump in 2018.
John Bolton, former US nationwide safety adviser and former US ambassador to the UN, instructed DW that diplomatic efforts and previous agreements on Iran’s nuclear program are merely a “cowl for an unalterable technique pursued by Tehran.”
Arguing that Iran’s weapons program was “by no means” really halted, Bolton pointed to what he described as the restrictions of global establishments, including that “the IAEA by no means had entry to Iran’s army bases, the place vital parts associated to weaponization happen.”
When requested in regards to the authorized implications of a possible Iranian withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, Bolton argued that Iran has been in violation of the NPT for greater than three a long time, that means a proper withdrawal would make little sensible distinction.
“The solely long-term path to reaching peace and safety within the Middle East,” Bolton emphasised, “is the overthrow of the regime in Tehran.”
War steels Tehran’s nuclear resolve
Amid the US-Israel struggle with Iran and the following modifications in Tehran’s command construction after the loss of life of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, recent developments have emerged.
The IAEA Board of Governors referred Iran to the UN Security Council on September 9 over alleged breaches of its non-proliferation obligations.
Meanwhile, the 60-day interval for technical talks with the United States beneath the so-called Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which prolonged a ceasefire between the 2 sides, expired in mid-August.
Damon Golriz, a political analyst and lecturer at The Hague University of Applied Sciences, argues that, opposite to Donald Trump’s view of his legacy in dismantling Iran’s nuclear capabilities, a nuclear-armed Iran would finally show to be “the best international coverage legacy of Donald Trump’s presidency.”
Reflecting on the army developments of 2026 and the killing of Khamenei in an Israeli air strike, Golriz mentioned: “In February 2026 Tehran confronted an existential struggle.”
“The marketing campaign entombed its nuclear amenities and decapitated its key weapons scientists, together with not less than 5 tiers of Iran’s prime army and safety institution,” Golriz added.
“Israel’s killing of the supreme chief settled a basic safety query: Has Ayatollah Khamenei as the primary constraint on Iran’s nuclear bomb turned out of date?”
Golriz means that it was particularly the audacity proven within the concentrating on of Iran’s management that upended the nation’s nationwide safety considering, thereby “strengthening calls to reassess its nuclear doctrine.”
Testing Tehran’s spiritual rhetoric on nukes
The official spiritual decree, or fatwa, banning the manufacturing and stockpiling of nuclear weapons has lengthy been a cornerstone of Tehran’s diplomatic rhetoric in claiming its nuclear program is peaceable.
First cited by Iranian officers within the mid-2000s, the fatwa was reaffirmed by Khamenei in 2019, when he mentioned producing and stockpiling nuclear weapons was forbidden.
However, amid political developments in Tehran and Mojtaba Khamenei’s silence on reaffirming this fatwa since turning into the brand new supreme chief, questions have been raised whether or not this spiritual pink line stays intact or has given strategy to new safety issues.
Thim Bosch, CEO of the Birdwatcher Group and a former senior intelligence officer with the Dutch General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD), pointed to the importance of this silence alongside rhetoric from army figures in Tehran.
Bosch instructed DW that there isn’t a definitive proof of a proper change in Tehran’s nuclear doctrine.
“However, these against buying nuclear weapons in Tehran are actually far weaker, and given Mojtaba Khamenei’s silence in reiterating his father’s fatwa, this commentary carries important weight,” he mentioned.
In December 2024, the IAEA assessed that Iran was the one nation with out a nuclear bomb to posses uranium enriched to 60%, whereas warning Tehran was “dramatically accelerating” enrichment. A purity of 90% is required to supply nuclear weapons.
However, with the IAEA barred from inspections, it’s anybody’s guess as to how far alongside Iran presently is.
“If the international stage’s nuclear watchdog can’t observe enriched uranium, no intelligence company can truthfully declare to know whether or not Iran has made the ultimate resolution to construct a bomb,” Bosch mentioned.
“Those who declare with absolute certainty that ‘they’ve made their resolution’ are both bluffing or principally advancing their very own political agendas: hardliners in Iran on one aspect, and hardliners in Israel and the United States on the opposite,” he added.
Edited by: Keith Walker
