Week 6 Packers Power Rankings, NFC Playoff Picture

Let’s check out what the nationwide analysts take into consideration the 3-2 Green Bay Packers after their back-to-back wins over the past two weeks, together with a peek on the present NFC standings. Yes, it is nonetheless manner too early within the 12 months to start out calculating precise playoff situations, nevertheless it’s price mentioning how the NFC is enjoying out, because the narrative you are going to need to take note of this 12 months is already growing.

Packers Power Rankings

Advertisement

The Packers have dug themselves out of the bottom-10 dialog, which is the place most analysts had them after their Thursday Night Football loss to the Atlanta Falcons that dropped Green Bay to 1-2. FOX Sports was by far the bottom on the Packers, they usually had the next to say:

The Packers’ blowout win over the Bears was actually out of nowhere, and possibly some candy revenge for Matt LaFleur’s crew. It was the primary signal of life from their offense since opening weekend, which is actually odd since QB Jordan Love has been enjoying effectively, they usually actually do have good receivers.

The Packers nonetheless cannot actually run the ball, and that is going to carry them again. But Love and an bettering protection have been sufficient to get them to 3-2. It does not look fairly, however they’ve an opportunity to remain on their offensive roll with the Cowboys, Lions and Panthers up subsequent.

Some truthful evaluation, for essentially the most half. If the passing sport caught somebody abruptly, although, I’m undecided what video games they have been watching this 12 months. The line has been regular over the past two weeks, and the difficulty has at all times been what occurs earlier than the ball is thrown, not after.

Pro Football Talk had the most important leap for the Packers this week, as Mike Florio had Green Bay leaping from #23 to #11.

When your adversary retains speaking, keep quiet and wait to your alternative.

NFC Playoff Picture

1. Minnesota Vikings (5-0, NFC North)

2. San Francisco 49ers (5-0, NFC West)

3. New York Giants (3-1-1, NFC East)

4. Carolina Panthers (2-2, NFC South)

11. Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)

13. Washington Commanders (1-3-1)

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4)

Advertisement

This is the present playoff image. Yes, the Packers are the highest seed within the wild card proper now, however the fifth by way of eighth seeds are all tied at 3-2, and the Los Angeles Rams are hoping to hawk everybody down at 2-3 within the ninth spot. Green Bay does not management their very own future, as even when the crew wins out and the Minnesota Vikings win out aside from a Packers loss, the Vikings will nonetheless be seeded over Green Bay.

In brief, we’re rooting for Minnesota losses (as if we weren’t already).

Below are the Packers’ probabilities at particular person seeds within the playoffs, in keeping with The Athletic.

Overall, they’ve a 38 % probability to make the postseason, per The Athletic’s numbers, and an 11 % probability to win the NFC North, each the bottom charges among the many NFC North groups. In greater than half (58 %) of The Athletic’s simulations, when the Packers make the playoffs for the 2026 season, they’re one of many final two seeds within the NFC.

Advertisement

Below are the total NFL playoff percentages for all 16 groups within the convention, per The Athletic:

• 17%: Washington Commanders

More fascinating to me, from a story standpoint, is what the wildcard seems like, since roughly three-quarters of The Athletic’s simulations characteristic a playoff Packers crew making it through the wildcard. You’ll see some frequent themes from years previous.

• 55%: Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams

• 35%: Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions

• 5%: Dallas Cowboys and Carolina Panthers

• 3%: Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders

• 2%: New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• BYES: Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings

Only about one-third of the best way into the season, there’s already a couple of 70 % probability that each one three NFC wildcard spots will come down to groups from the North and West, even when simulated head-to-head video games are taken into consideration. For years, the NFC East and NFC South have dragged behind the North and West, and this season hasn’t modified that outlook.

Both divisions must be absolute dogfights within the ultimate two-thirds of the 2026 season. Two groups will get in as division winners, and there shall be 5 others preventing for 3 spots. Right now, the NFC West #2 and #3 seeds are simply on the skin trying in, hoping for one of many 4 NFC North groups — which might all advance to the postseason if the season ended right this moment — to begin to slip.

Advertisement

For enjoyable, I took a take a look at playoff leverage for NFC groups’ Week 6 video games (the distinction between their playoff proportion with a win in comparison with a loss) through The Athletic’s simulator. Here’s what that appears like:

• 21%: Packers vs. DAL (48% with a win, 27% with a loss)

• 21%: Bears @ ATL (67%, 46%)

• 21%: Rams vs ARZ (74%, 53%)

• 20%: Cowboys @ GB (50%, 30%)

• 20%: Falcons vs CHI (54%, 34%)

• 17%: Giants vs NYG (37%, 20%)

• 17%: Panthers @ PHI (60%, 43%)

• 16%: Eagles vs CAR (38%, 22%)

• 16%: Seahawks @ DEN (78%, 62%)

• 14%: Commanders @ SF (26%, 12%)

• 8%: Saints @ NYG (16%, 8%)

• 7%: Buccaneers vs PIT (12%, 5%)

• 6%: 49ers vs WAS (97%, 91%)

• 3%: Cardinals @ LAR (3%, <1%)

So whereas a Week 6 sport won’t look like it has big stakes, The Athletic’s simulator says the Packers’ possibilities of making the postseason practically double if they arrive out of this sport with a win (48 %) in comparison with a loss (27 %). They are tied for being in essentially the most high-leverage state of affairs within the NFC this week, together with the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams. The Rams, although, take pleasure in being an almost two-touchdown favourite towards a tanking Arizona Cardinals crew, in comparison with the Packers and Bears enjoying in video games which are kind of toss-ups.

A best-case state of affairs for Green Bay this week in all probability includes:

• The Packers profitable (clearly)

• The Seahawks dropping to the Broncos

• The Rams dropping to the Cardinals

• The Bears dropping to the Falcons

If that state of affairs performs out, the Packers may have a 52 % probability to make the playoffs, even with the Lions and Vikings on a BYE, per The Athletic’s simulator. If the other outcomes play out in these 4 video games, Green Bay’s probabilities drop to 25 %.