Pakistan-Taliban unrest: Can India take benefit?

Pakistan and Afghanistan proper now are locked in a cycle of escalating tension. Repeated border clashes have strained ties between the 2 nations. 

The present spherical of tensions started in February 2026, when Pakistan launched strikes into Afghanistan targeting Taliban militants. At one level in March, Pakistan’s protection minister mentioned the nation was at “open war” with Afghanistan. Periodic bouts of violence have continued since then, with the newest Pakistani strikes concentrating on the Afghan Taliban’s “terrorist hubs” reported earlier in October.

At the guts of the dispute is Pakistan’s accusation that the Taliban authorities in Kabul enable the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group, to target Pakistan from Afghan territory. Kabul denies offering the group with sanctuary.

Where does India come into play?

As the 2 neighbors commerce strikes, the escalating unrest “presents a major diplomatic and strategic alternative for India,” Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, an Afghanistan professional and founding father of the India-based Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies, instructed DW.

D’Souza argues the confrontation has weakened Pakistan’s conventional affect in Afghanistan and inspired the Taliban to broaden its exterior relations.

“India can reply by increasing diplomatic engagement, humanitarian help, improvement initiatives and commerce, whereas in search of assurances that Afghan territory won’t be utilized by anti-India militant teams,” she mentioned.

However, D’Souza cautioned towards deciphering the opening as a basic realignment.

“There isn’t any ideological alignment between India and the Taliban,” she mentioned. Afghanistan below Taliban rule is more likely to pursue a diversified international coverage quite than align completely with New Delhi.

India additionally lacks the geographical benefits, financial leverage and safety presence wanted to interchange Pakistan’s affect, she notes. “The state of affairs of the Taliban turning into a strategic ally stays far-fetched.”

Former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan Amar Sinha warned towards viewing the unrest merely as a possibility for New Delhi to achieve at Pakistan’s expense.

“The points have little or no to do with India,” Sinha instructed DW, arguing that India was not in search of strategic benefit from the combating. He additionally pointed to the results of Pakistan’s navy actions for Afghan civilians.

“Yet the rupture has made Kabul’s seek for various companions extra urgent,” he added.

For India, that creates a gap, however not essentially a strategic alignment, Sinha notes. The Taliban can search Indian help whereas sustaining relations with China, Russia, Iran and Gulf states, preserving its autonomy quite than exchanging dependence on Pakistan for dependence on India.

The value of nearer ties

Gautam Mukhopadhyaya, one other former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan, sees the deterioration in relations between Pakistan and the Taliban as a possibility for India to get better among the strategic floor it misplaced when the Taliban returned to energy in 2021.

“The disaster has allowed strategic openings for India,” Mukhopadhyaya instructed DW. He warned, nevertheless, that New Delhi’s personal remedy of Afghans may undermine its efforts to construct a sturdy relationship.

He pointed to restrictions affecting Afghans in search of Indian visas for schooling, scholarships, work and medical remedy.

“For all sensible functions, India’s safety institution treats Afghans as proxy Pakistanis and ‘terrorists’ by default,” he mentioned.

Former Afghan companions had been left “dissatisfied, even bitter,” Mukhopadhyaya added. “A strategic relationship constructed on the sands of oppression is just not a sound basis.”

Trade can’t overcome geography

India has restored air freight hyperlinks between Kabul and Delhi and between Kabul and Amritsar in northwestern India in December 2025.

Bilateral commerce between India and Afghanistan stood at about $908 million (€807 million) within the 2025-26 fiscal yr, whereas commerce between Pakistan and Afghanistan fell sharply amid repeated border closures.

On October 14, Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi burdened the significance of relations with India throughout talks with Indian cost d’affaires Yatin Patel, signaling Kabul’s curiosity in increasing financial cooperation.

But air freight is pricey, and India can’t simply change Pakistan as a transit route.

New Delhi has sought to use Iran’s Chabahar port to enhance entry to Afghanistan and Central Asia, however regional instability and issues surrounding Iran have constrained these ambitions.

D’Souza cautioned that “the continued conflict in Iran” limits India’s capacity to make use of Chabahar as a vital commerce and connectivity hub.

Gulshan Sachdeva, a professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University specializing in Afghanistan and Eurasian connectivity, highlighted comparable obstacles.

“In the previous couple of many years, Islamabad has obstructed Kabul’s efforts to achieve entry to the huge Indian market. However, political instability in Afghanistan and sanctions on Iran have undermined these efforts,” Sachdeva instructed DW.

“Afghanistan’s potential as a connector between regional financial hubs stays appreciable, however the transport systems and political situations wanted to comprehend it are removed from assured,” he added.

Sachdeva additionally sees Russia and China as higher positioned to form Afghanistan’s wider financial integration. Alternative routes might grow to be extra engaging to India, however they aren’t commercially viable in a single day.

Islamabad’s safety fears

Pakistan has portrayed arch-rival India’s rising engagement with the Taliban as a safety risk. On October 7, Pakistani diplomat Muhammad Jawad Ajmal accused India on the United Nations of offering the Taliban with materials and logistical assist.

“Under the guise of humanitarian help, they’ve been actively supporting the Taliban regime with materials and logistical assist for finishing up terrorist assaults towards Pakistan,” Ajmal mentioned.

The allegation displays Islamabad’s place and has not been established as truth.

Pakistan has accused India of supporting the TTP and the Balochistan Liberation Army, a militant group.

India rejects accusations of backing militant exercise, whereas the Taliban denies permitting Afghan territory for use for assaults towards Pakistan.

Ayesha Siddiqa, a Pakistani professional on navy and safety affairs at King’s College London, supplied a extra nuanced evaluation of Pakistan’s place.

“India has stepped into an area and is making an attempt to exert its affect and feed anti-Pakistan teams intelligence,” she instructed DW.

Siddiqa added that Pakistan’s institution continues to view the disaster by way of “a singular safety lens.”

“Islamabad feels bodily squeezed from each side,” she mentioned, including that nearer Kabul-New Delhi ties may create “a harmful two-front safety entice” for Pakistan. 

India might achieve extra room to function in Afghanistan as ties between Kabul and Islamabad deteriorate. But the Taliban is unlikely to place all its eggs in New Delhi’s basket.

Edited by: Emmy Sasipornkarn