Latvians head to the polls with Russia on their minds

Four German Air Force Eurofighter jets stand prepared at Latvia’s Lielvarde navy air base, simply 60 kilometers from Riga. The plane are a part of NATO’s efforts to strengthen Baltic air defenses on the alliance’s jap flank forward. Germany despatched the jets amid repeated drone incursions, which have put Latvia on alert forward of the nation’s elections on October 3. 

Security fears forward of elections 

Security has turn into one of many defining problems with this marketing campaign — protection guarantees showing on the applications of a lot of the main events in Latvia. And the Latvian public’s anxieties aren’t unfounded.

In current months, a number of drones have entered Baltic airspace. The newest incident occurred on September 15 in Lithuania, when a drone believed to have crossed from Belarus was shot down by an NATO fighter jet.

On prime of that there are hybrid threats, together with migrant flows that Latvia and its neighbors say are being inspired by Russia’s ally Belarus to stress the EU and check border safety. Intelligence officers of a number of European nations, together with Latvia and the Czech Republic have warned that Russia may search to check NATO within the upcoming “months, not years.”

“There are issues within the West and in addition right here within the Baltic states that Russia is perhaps attempting some additional actions right here within the Baltics,” says Maris Andzans, director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies in Riga. “If you need to check NATO, there isn’t any higher place than the Baltic states.”

Near-unanimous settlement on protection

Latvia elects its 100-seat parliament, Saeima, by way of proportional illustration, that means coalition governments are the norm. Polls at the moment put the centrist United List, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs forward, adopted by the populist alliance Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance and Latvia First led by Ainars Slesers. The center-left Progressives and the conservative National Alliance are additionally anticipated to enter parliament.

Most of those Latvian events view Russia as a safety problem.

“The largest menace is our neighbors, Russia and Belarus,” says Agnese Kupca of the United List. “Our companions within the EU ought to perceive: it’s not solely our border with Russia, but additionally EU and NATO border with aggressor.”

Latvia is likely one of the few NATO members which have dedicated by legislation to spending 5% of GDP on protection, and analysts say the nation’s overseas coverage orientation is unlikely to alter no matter which coalition emerges after the vote as there may be almost unanimous consensus on the significance of NATO. Which is backed by their voters: in line with Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (FES) Security Radar 2025 Latvians usually have a constructive view of NATO.

Economic issues amongst voters 

But whereas safety coverage enjoys broad settlement, the financial penalties of Latvia distancing itself from Russia stay contentious.

Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia was amongst Latvia’s most essential buying and selling companions. Since 2022, Latvia has lowered imports from Russia and Belarus by greater than 90% and launched a number of the hardest restrictions within the EU on items from the 2 nations. Latvia’s economic landscape has tailored, however companies with sturdy pre-war hyperlinks to Russia have been among the many hardest hit.

“This closeness to the theater of warfare has strongly influenced the capital allocation local weather,” says political analyst Filips Rajevskis. “So the massive query is the best way to enhance the investments and develop the economic landscape.”

Many Latvians reject any financial cooperation with Russia on safety grounds. Sixty p.c stated they need Latvia to cut back dependence on Russia, in line with FES Security Radar 2025. “In the present state of affairs, it is absolute nonsense. We cannot watch what’s occurring and nonetheless be mates with Russia,” one passerby in Riga instructed DW.

Not breaking apart with Russia utterly? 

At the identical time 20% of Latvians, in line with FES, favor nearer ties with Russia. Calls for a extra pragmatic method in direction of its jap neighbor should not unusual within the political debates. 

Julija Stepanenko, chief of Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance, has repeatedly argued in opposition to utterly severing financial ties with Russia and Belarus.

Earlier this 12 months, it emerged that Stepanenko has acquired items value roughly €400,000 ($470,000) from her father, a Russia-based businessman whose firm manufactures building supplies, together with anti-tank fortifications often called “dragon’s enamel.” But regardless of that, her celebration stays in second place within the polls. 

When DW met Lyubov Shvetsova, certainly one of Sovereign Power/Union of New Latvians celebration candidates at a marketing campaign stand simply exterior the middle of Riga, she rejected accusations that the celebration is pro-Russian.

“Our method is pragmatism oriented towards the pursuits of Latvian corporate affairs,” she stated.

Economic pragmatism

Another advocate of a extra pragmatic financial method is Ainars Slesers, former businessman and chief of Latvia First.

During an interview on Latvian public tv earlier in September, Slesers argued that transit of products with Russia ought to proceed so long as it’s not prohibited by EU sanctions.

His celebration has targeted closely on financial points, arguing that Latvia ought to prioritize progress and capital allocation over what it sees as extreme self-imposed restrictions. And this method has discovered assist: greater than 9% are able to vote for Latvia First, which is in third place within the polls.

However, discussions about absolutely restoring commerce with Russia are untimely, celebration member Edmunds Zivtins instructed DW. “As lengthy because the warfare in Ukraine is ongoing, we can not discuss it,” he stated.

Language and identification dividing Latvia 

Analysts say such events could appeal to some voters who really feel alienated by Latvia’s more and more restrictive method towards Russia.

The attraction is just not essentially pushed by assist for the Kremlin. Rather, it typically comes from elements of the nation’s Russian-speaking minority who really feel ignored by mainstream events and uneasy about insurance policies such because the phase-out of Russian-language college schooling and the lowered function of Russian in public life.

About one-third of Latvia’s inhabitants speaks Russian at house.

However, the end result of those elections is difficult to foretell. Filips Rajevskis says many citizens are hiding not solely their celebration choice, however even their resolution to go to vote forward of elections. 

As Latvians head to the polls, Moscow is shaping the marketing campaign in methods each direct and oblique: as a safety menace driving assist for NATO and protection spending, and as an financial and cultural query that continues to divide elements of the voters.