Fewer California Republicans approve of Trump, ballot says. That might harm GOP midterm probabilities

With gasoline costs topping $6 a gallon and an unpopular struggle persevering with in Iran, President Trump’s approval has slipped with California Republicans — a falloff that might diminish the social gathering’s probabilities within the state’s few aggressive congressional races.

A brand new ballot by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by The Times, discovered that 76% of Republican voters within the state approve of the president’s efficiency, down from 83% final 12 months.

The president’s approval has softened even amongst those that nonetheless help his efficiency. Only 44% of Republicans in California stated they strongly help Trump’s efficiency, down from 57% who stated the identical in August 2025.

That might translate into decrease Republican turnout within the state’s few aggressive races, stated the ballot’s director, Mark DiCamillo.

“Republicans are shedding a few of their enthusiasm when it comes to being motivated to vote,” he stated.

In addition, the extra Trump tries to make the midterm elections about himself — such because the pro-Trump adverts recently sponsored and paid for by the federal government — the extra Democrats may be inclined to indicate up, stated G. Cristina Mora, the UC Berkeley institute’s co-director.

“That would possibly even have a galvanizing impact on voters,” she stated.

Trump’s sinking help in California mirrors a national decline in the president’s approval, even amongst Republicans.

The congressional map within the state was already difficult for Republicans after voters final 12 months authorized a referendum championed by Gov. Gavin Newsom to redraw districts to be extra favorable for Democrats — a response to comparable efforts by Republicans in Texas and different states.

In the brand new map, solely 4 of the state’s 52 districts are at the moment thought-about secure Republican districts, whereas three additional districts are seen as competitive, in keeping with the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan political handicapper.

The remaining 45 districts are seen as both seemingly or solidly Democratic in a state the place Democrats maintain a roughly 20% benefit in social gathering registration.

Only one race is considered by Cook to be a real toss-up — California’s twenty second Congressional District within the Central Valley, which is held by Republican Rep. David Valadao.

“We’re taking a look at the most effective case state of affairs for Democrats at this level,” stated Erin Covey, Cook’s U.S. House editor.

Valadao, certainly one of solely 10 Republicans to vote for Trump’s impeachment within the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, rebellion, faces progressive Democrat Randy Villegas, a political science professor who has the backing of Bernie Sanders. The Vermont senator is becoming a member of Villegas this weekend for a rally in Bakersfield.

Valadao first gained a seat in Congress in 2012, however was ousted from workplace throughout the Democrats’ “blue wave” election in 2018, through which the social gathering gained 40 seats within the House within the first election after Trump took workplace in 2016. Valadao was in a position to win again his seat in 2020 and has held it since.

There has been scant public polling within the race, however a ballot performed in June by a political committee backing Villegas confirmed the Democrat holding a 4-point lead over Valadao.

Two different congressional districts within the state are listed by Cook as leaning Democratic:

• California’s forty eighth Congressional District in Riverside and San Diego counties, now held by Republican Rep. Darrell Issa, who opted to retire moderately than search reelection within the redrawn district.
• California’s thirteenth Congressional District within the San Joaquin Valley, the place Democratic Rep. Adam Gray is attempting to fend off a problem from Republican Kevin Lincoln, the previous mayor of Stockton.

Trump’s approval additionally dipped amongst Black and Latino voters within the ballot. Both teams had been a part of Trump’s winning coalition within the 2024 presidential election.

The ballot additionally discovered broad disapproval of two signature Trump administration insurance policies.

It discovered that 70% of California voters disapprove of Trump’s choice to go to struggle in Iran, together with 1 in 5 Republicans.

Also, 70% of California voters imagine that the president’s immigration insurance policies are hurting California’s macro economy and native companies, together with 1 in 5 Republicans.

The ballot was performed on-line in English and Spanish between Sept. 15 and Sept. 20 and included the opinions of 6,989 registered California voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 1.5 share factors.