Meta’s Muse daily-user progress fell 62% in three weeks and insiders made 172 trades and not using a purchase · The Inference
Meta’s autonomous agent app is dropping downloads and daily-user progress, and a brief vendor is urgent the purpose; the insider promoting, although scheduled months upfront, has run a technique. The inventory closed close to $719, about 8% beneath Zuckerberg’s sale worth and much under the Street’s highest goal, $1,000 at Wells Fargo.
A five-million-download begin, now cooling
Meta+3.29% — Meta, up 3.29 % at the moment launched Muse, its autonomous AI agent app, on September 8, constructed to hold out duties reasonably than simply reply questions 1. It drew five million downloads in 22 days, a gap solely 23 apps have ever overwhelmed, and topped the US free-app charts 23. By the estimate of Hunterbrook, a short-selling analysis agency, the run added about $200 billion of market worth 3.
Downloads have slowed since. They averaged about 165,000 a day within the seven days to October 7, down 8.1% from roughly 180,000 the week earlier than 14. The October 6 studying, about 170,000, sat 21.1% under the September 24 peak of about 215,000 3.
Net new customers fell far sooner than downloads
User progress cooled sooner than downloads: web new day by day customers fell from about 198,000 a day within the week of September 15 to 87,000 the subsequent week and 74,000 within the week to October 6, a 62.4% drop, whereas weekly evaluations fell 11.6% to 4,716 13. Daily actives set a file, 2.73 million on October 6, however trailed Threads on the similar age, and Threads had launched globally and misplaced customers sooner after its debut 3. Sensor Tower, a second tracker, counts decrease ranges: 1.8 million day by day customers on 6.6 million downloads 5.
Muse’s web new day by day customers fell 62% in three weeks
Data
| Net new day by day customers | |
|---|---|
| Week of 15 Sep | 198k |
| Week of 23 Sep | 87k |
| Week to six Oct | 74k |
An agent with fewer locations to behave
Hunterbrook disclosed the Meta short on October 9 alongside the information, betting enthusiasm had run forward of utilization 4. Weeks earlier its investigative arm, then holding no Meta place, reported the agent might be prompted to compile lists of Facebook and Instagram accounts tied to undocumented immigrants, transgender lecturers and ladies who ordered abortion capsules 3. Useful brokers want deep entry to accounts and private information, which is the place the chance sits 1.
Amazon−1.08% — Amazon, down 1.08 % at the moment stated in September it had blocked Muse from looking for clients, and TickerTrends, the app-data agency whose metrics underpin the brief, tracks consumer stories of restrictions at Costco and Netflix+0.41% — Netflix, up 0.41 % at the moment as properly 3. Zuckerberg has known as Muse “the centerpiece of our imaginative and prescient for what we’re constructing” 3. An agent shut out of Amazon has a narrower pitch than the one Meta marketed.
172 gross sales, zero buys
Unusual Whales, an insider-trading tracker, counted 172 insider transactions at Meta over six months, none a purchase order 6. Zuckerberg offered $21.4 million of inventory on September 24 with shares close to $778; Javier Olivan, Meta‘s chief working officer, offered about $24 million; chief monetary officer Susan Li additionally offered 6. EDGAR logs 40 of the filings, the insider trade disclosures, between June 17 and October 7 7.
The filings minimize each methods: the gross sales ran beneath Rule 10b5-1 plans set months upfront, some entries had been tax withholding, and one submitting states it “doesn’t characterize a sale” 6. A preset plan explains the promoting; nothing within the filings explains why no insider has purchased. The inventory closed Friday close to $719, about 8% beneath Zuckerberg’s sale worth 6.
A $1,000 goal that waits on 2027
Wells Fargo raised its Meta target to $1,000 from $796 on October 6, tied for the best on the Street, and 56 of 63 analysts charge the inventory a purchase or sturdy purchase 8. Analyst Ken Gawrelski expects earnings per share to backside in 2027, a spending cycle he compares to Reels in 2022 although “probably a lot bigger,” with little Muse earnings earlier than then 8.
The June-quarter accounts present the invoice: complete prices up 55% to $42.03 billion, working margin all the way down to 31% from 43%, free money movement at $784 million after lease funds and $1.7 billion earlier than them, because the chart exhibits 910. Buybacks ran at zero, long-term debt reached $83.66 billion, and the consensus worth goal sits at $794.96 9.
Meta closed under each reference worth, from the Street’s excessive goal to Zuckerberg’s sale
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Wells Fargo goal | $1,000 |
| Consensus goal | $794.96 |
| Zuckerberg’s sale worth | $778 |
| Friday shut | $719 |
Free money movement fell to $1.7B final quarter as capex hit $30.1B
- Capital expenditure
- Free money movement
Data
| Capital expenditure | Free money movement | |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 ’23 | $6.5B | $13.91B |
| This fall ’23 | $7.59B | $11.81B |
| Q1 ’24 | $6.4B | $12.85B |
| Q2 ’24 | $8.17B | $11.2B |
| Q3 ’24 | $8.26B | $16.47B |
| This fall ’24 | $14.43B | $13.56B |
| Q1 ’25 | $12.94B | $11.09B |
| Q2 ’25 | $16.54B | $9.02B |
| Q3 ’25 | $18.83B | $11.17B |
| This fall ’25 | $21.38B | $14.83B |
| Q1 ’26 | $19B | $13.23B |
| Q2 ’26 | $30.12B | $1.75B |
Q3 is the decision on Muse engagement
Meta‘s third-quarter report lands in opposition to a 2026 capex guide of $130 billion to $145 billion and earnings steerage of $61 billion to $64 billion 9. Downloads measure curiosity and day by day actives measure behavior 1. Both are slowing, and the behavior measure, web day by day additions, is slowing far sooner; Q3 will present whether or not that may be a launch lull or the product’s form 34.
