‘We don’t have inflation’? 5 charts present the US financial actuality of Trump’s second time period thus far | US midterm elections 2026
US voters are exhausted by years of upper costs. Donald Trump received the presidency in 2024 on guarantees to decrease inflation and undo the injury he mentioned the Biden administration had inflicted on the marketplace.
In Trump’s view, his plan is working. At a current rally in Montana, Trump boasted in regards to the present marketplace, framing it as a booming time for Americans. “We’re richer now,” he mentioned. “We don’t have inflation.”
Economic information paints a special image. Inflation, particularly fuel costs, has soared over the past 12 months. The job market has been in stasis, and better rates of interest have meant it’s costlier for Americans to borrow cash for loans and mortgages.
These fluctuations have a concrete affect on the lives of Americans. A current Harris poll for the Guardian discovered {that a} majority of Americans, together with some Republicans, disagree. Nearly two-thirds mentioned they consider the nation is experiencing a recession, and lots of mentioned larger costs had been a ache level. Americans are reporting having bother saving, and a 3rd polled mentioned one shock invoice may sink them financially.
Here’s what the info reveals us about Trump’s second time period thus far.
Inflation
The charge of worth will increase has dramatically cooled since its peak in 2022, when the pandemic’s financial stimulus packages discovered their manner into shopper costs. Inflation peaked at 9.1%, a 40-year excessive, in June 2022.
In January 2025, the month when Trump began his second time period, inflation was down to three%. By April 2025, it might be 2.3% – the bottom charge since 2021.
That’s when issues begin to get bumpy. After Trump positioned tariffs on almost all the pieces that the US imports, inflation began to warmth up once more, climbing again as much as 3% in September 2025. After a lot of his tariffs had been paused and ultimately discovered to be unlawful, costs began taking place once more. In January and February 2026, inflation was again all the way down to 2.4%.
The Iran struggle, particularly its affect on oil costs, has introduced inflation again as much as ranges not seen since 2023. In May, inflation reached 4.2% and has hovered above 3.4% since.
It’s been almost six years since Americans have seen inflation at a manageable 2% degree. Price will increase construct up over time and may put a squeeze on budgets, which is why it’s such a delicate level for voters throughout an important election.
Gas costs
In the Guardian’s current ballot with the Harris Poll, gas prices had been the most typical ache level for Americans, with 83% saying they’re making a dent of their present funds.
Soon after the struggle in Iran started, the strait of Hormuz, a key route {that a} fifth of the international stage’s oil usually passes by means of, was blocked off. Its closure has pushed up costs throughout the international stage. Though the US itself is a significant oil producer, costs have nonetheless surged because the struggle. The common worth of fuel was $4.32 per gallon in mid-October, in accordance with AAA, almost $1.30 a gallon larger than a 12 months in the past.
Even for an oil-producing state like Texas, a gallon of fuel is $3.81 in contrast with $2.64 a 12 months in the past. Meanwhile, drivers in California, a state that imports a lot of its fuel from abroad, are paying $6.21 per gallon.
Monthly job figures
The labor market is one other metric used to measure the well being of the marketplace, and whereas the US job market has seen some development since Trump took workplace once more, figures have fluctuated over the past 12 months. In 2025, altogether 181,000 new jobs had been added to the marketplace, in contrast with 2.2m jobs in 2024.
Employers have been coping with a combined panorama for hiring: harsher immigration insurance policies, uncertainty from tariffs and better costs for provides have all meant sluggish job development. The unemployment charge has remained low, although, at simply over 4%. Economists name this a “low-hire, low-fire” marketplace, through which employers are neither hiring nor dismissing employees.
S&P 500
Though many Americans report struggling in in the present day’s marketplace, a small group have by no means been wealthier. The inventory market has continued to soar since Trump took workplace, recovering from dips seen throughout his preliminary tariff announcement and the early days of the Iran struggle.
Economists largely see AI capital allocation because the main issue within the inventory market’s acceleration. Tech corporations are spending billions of {dollars} investing in datacenters and for chips which are wanted to energy AI.
While many Americans are invested within the inventory market by means of their retirement and pension funds, this development has actually been a boon for the highest 1% wealthiest Americans, who own almost half of the inventory market investments.
Economists say larger costs paired with an exuberant inventory market have led to a K-shaped economy, the place the wealthier have by no means felt richer whereas on a regular basis Americans proceed to cope with tightened budgets from excessive costs.
Interest charges
Interest charges are sometimes not as noticeable to shoppers as fuel or grocery costs, which they arrive throughout on daily basis. The affect that larger rates of interest have on the marketplace takes longer to look and runs deep. Interest charges form how a lot Americans pay to borrow cash – to run their companies, repay automobile loans and purchase their properties.
For the Federal Reserve, shifting rates of interest is the device it makes use of to steadiness the marketplace. Raising charges can cool the marketplace, bringing costs down, although on the danger of injuring the job market. Lowering charges can stimulate the marketplace on the danger of resulting in extra inflation.
When Trump entered workplace in January 2025, the Fed was in the course of a collection of rate of interest reductions. Officials mentioned they had been seeing inflation cooling and slower development within the labor market. Interest charges had been at a spread of 4.25% to 4.5% – 1% decrease than they had been a 12 months in the past.
Uncertainty round Trump’s new tariffs would finally lead officers to pause the discount, although the president was nonetheless demanding decrease charges. As tariffs proved to have much less of a long-term impact on costs, the Fed began decreasing charges once more in fall 2025.
For months, the Fed held off on altering charges because the financial impacts of the struggle of Iran bore out. But in September, the Fed hiked rates for the primary time since 2023, by 1 / 4 level. The Trump-appointed Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, mentioned that “inflation is simply too excessive and has been for too lengthy”.
Higher rates of interest have already had an affect on mortgage charges, which had dipped all the way down to under 6% (for a 30-year mortgage) for the primary time since 2022, in February, however at the moment are up previous 7%.
