Far-right AfD eyes power in German state vote

I have not experienced a more polarizing election since Brexit or Trump vs. Hillary Clinton in 2016. That is because the stakes are so high.

For a number of reasons, the decision voters in Saxony-Anhalt reach today is being watched closely in Berlin and beyond:

• Watershed moment: Should the AfD secure an absolute majority, it would be the first time a right-wing populist party has won power in a state in Germany in the postwar era.
• Firewall: Should the AfD not secure an absolute majority, the focus will turn to the conservative CDU. Pressure will mount on the party to rethink its longstanding policy of not governing with or passing laws with the far-right AfD or far-left Left Party. Such a debate risks splitting the CDU.
• Chancellor: A dire result for the conservatives may lead to calls for the deeply unpopular Chancellor Friedrich Merz to be replaced. In CDU circles in Berlin, the talk is of an election that could ‘change the republic.’

Saxony-Anhalt, one of Germany’s 16 federal states, boasts a rich cultural and historical heritage.
 
Home to around 2.1 million people, it is one of Germany’s most sparsely populated states. Only two cities, the state capital Magdeburg, and the city of Halle, have more than 200,000 inhabitants.
 
Today, voters will elect a new state parliament.

The center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has led the state government since 2002 as the leading party in governing coalitions. But the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has dominated polls in the run-up to the vote, typically drawing support in the 40% range, well beyond the CDU’s low-to-mid-20% range.

If polling holds, the AfD would become Saxony-Anhalt’s largest party for the first time. Every other major party has ruled out allying with it, meaning it would likely need to secure an outright majority in order to govern. A broader coalition made up of other parties is the other potential outcome.
 
A key thing to watch when exit polls and preliminary results are released tonight is whether smaller parties fall below the 5% threshold and lose representation.
 
Under election law, parties must obtain at least 5% of party-list votes (known as second votes) to secure representation.
 
This would mean more seats in the state parliament for the remaining parties, including the AfD, on a proportional basis. That could allow the AfD to secure an outright majority if enough smaller parties fail to clear the threshold.

Normally, there is not much new to report on polling day. But as voters in Germany’s Saxony-Anhalt cast their ballots in a key state election, we’ll explain why this vote is being watched so closely.

We’ll remind you what the main candidates said in the run-up to today’s election and bring you insights from our correspondents, who have spent months covering the parties and speaking to voters across the state. Once the exit polls and results start coming in, we’ll provide analysis of what they mean.

Throughout the day, we’ll also bring you live coverage from our television broadcasts and social media channels, along with background articles and videos to help make sense of it all.

Whether you’re following the election closely or just catching up, we’ll help you stay on top of the key moments and what they could mean for Germany.